Daily early-warning signals for US market stress and recession risk
Three plain answers, updated every day from public data: how stressed US financial conditions are now, whether they are getting worse, and whether pressure is building toward a downturn a year or two out.
Today's reading
?As of 2026-09-29 · Four themes from the Market Stress and Liquidity & Labor pages. Credit spreads and volatility count double, the yield curve and funding once. One theme alone can raise the headline to one step below its own colour.
How stressed are conditions now?
Current stress: Low
1 of 4 themes above green: Yield curve (Yellow)
?As of 2026-09-29 · Five themes compared with 3 months ago: credit spreads, volatility, funding & liquidity, labor and the Yen Carry signals. Rates, oil and the yield curve are left out: they warn early rather than show what is happening now.
Are conditions getting materially worse?
Momentum: Mixed
vs. 3 months ago, of 5 themes: 1 worse (Yen carry), 1 better (Labor)
?As of 2026-09-29 · Looks 1–2 years ahead. The yield curve counts double; rising jobless claims and tight financial conditions (NFCI) once each. The curve turned up 10–24 months before every recession since 1990, but it also stayed up through 2022–24 with no recession.
Is pressure building toward a downturn?
Pressure: Building
1 of 3 themes above green: Yield curve (Yellow)
Hover or tap a ? for how each answer is built, or read the methodology.
What the three answers mean
- How stressed are conditions now?
- Current stress (Low, Moderate, High or Severe) judges the level of credit spreads, volatility and stress indexes, the yield curve and bank funding. Credit spreads and volatility count double because they show stress as it happens.
- Are conditions getting materially worse?
- Momentum (Improving, Stable, Mixed or Worsening) compares each signal with three months ago across five themes: credit spreads, volatility, funding and liquidity, the labor market and the yen carry trade.
- Is pressure building toward a recession?
- Pressure (Low, Building, Elevated or High) is the forward-looking answer. It rests on the signals with a record of leading recessions: the yield curve, rising jobless claims and tight financial conditions. Since 1990 it first turned Elevated 10 to 24 months before each recession, but it also stayed up through 2022–24 with no recession.
What the site watches
Private credit
How fast US private debt is growing, and whether that growth is braking: the credit impulse, credit acceleration and the debt service ratio explained.
Liquidity & labor
Jobless claims, the Sahm Rule, Chicago Fed financial conditions, Fed net liquidity and SOFR funding stress: what each signals and the warning levels used.
Market stress
Yield-curve inversion, high-yield and investment-grade credit spreads, the VIX and the St. Louis Fed stress index: which lead a downturn and which confirm it.
Yen carry trade
What the yen carry trade is, why its unwinds (1998, 2007, 2008, 2024) shake markets, and the rate-gap, positioning and volatility signals that warn of one.
Full dashboards
Members get the interactive dashboards behind these answers: every indicator with its current value, direction and signal, multi-panel charts, replays of past crises (1990, 2000–02, 2008, 2020, the 2024 yen unwind) and CSV downloads.