# Titanic in search of an iceberg

> A free daily reading of US financial stress and recession risk: credit spreads, volatility, the yield curve, liquidity, jobless claims, the Sahm Rule, private-credit growth and the yen carry trade, combined into three plain answers.

The site answers three questions daily from public US data (FRED, BIS, CFTC):
how stressed financial conditions are now (Current stress), whether they are
getting materially worse (Momentum), and whether pressure is building toward a
recession one to two years out (Pressure). Signal levels are simple published
rules, not a forecasting model and not investment advice.

## Today's reading (as of 2026-09-29)

- Current stress: Low (Yield curve (Yellow))
- Momentum vs. 3 months ago: Mixed (1 of 5 themes worse, 1 better)
- Pressure building: Building (Yield curve (Yellow))

## Pages

- [Today's reading](https://titaniciceberg.com/): the three headline answers, updated daily
- [Private credit growth: the credit impulse and credit acceleration](https://titaniciceberg.com/guide/private-credit): How fast US private debt is growing, and whether that growth is braking: the credit impulse, credit acceleration and the debt service ratio explained.
- [Liquidity and labor-market stress: claims, NFCI, net liquidity, SOFR and the Sahm Rule](https://titaniciceberg.com/guide/liquidity-and-labor): Jobless claims, the Sahm Rule, Chicago Fed financial conditions, Fed net liquidity and SOFR funding stress: what each signals and the warning levels used.
- [Market stress indicators: the yield curve, credit spreads, VIX and more](https://titaniciceberg.com/guide/market-stress): Yield-curve inversion, high-yield and investment-grade credit spreads, the VIX and the St. Louis Fed stress index: which lead a downturn and which confirm it.
- [The yen carry trade: how to spot a build-up and an unwind](https://titaniciceberg.com/guide/yen-carry-trade): What the yen carry trade is, why its unwinds (1998, 2007, 2008, 2024) shake markets, and the rate-gap, positioning and volatility signals that warn of one.
- [Methodology](https://titaniciceberg.com/methodology): how the answers are built and how they scored against 1988–2026 data